monster cable Xiaonian the decline of late ( a)

ihd1ff1wem

Xiaonian
very pleased to Yanshan large auditorium. I very much agree with the tradition of Yanshan large auditorium, lecture halls in college, first of all adhere to the criticism, the second is constructive, and the third is open, the fourth is the independent, the intellectuals must be independent, otherwise no value I hope the Yanshan large auditorium can go all the way down the road. Affected by the Cultural Revolution, we think that the word critique is very pejorative, the word in English is a neutral term, its current conclusions, the idea is always critical of the existing attitude of suspicion, only that attitude to promote the academic development, to promote public policy, so I think criticism is very important.

recession more severe abnormalities

I going to talk today is titled The current economic situation in our country how serious? Should be said that very serious. I recently ran two trips south, to a number of more serious crisis-affected areas, such as Dongguan, Zhongshan, I see companies cut, cut or even close, a large number of workers were dismissed because the government does not allow factory lay off workers, so called Negative growth in exports, a negative growth of power generation, profit growth of industrial enterprises decreased rapidly ,9-11 profit growth rate in industrial enterprises is negative. (Http://www.tecn
the economic downturn faster than all expectations, including me, I feel a recession coming, but did not think came so fierce, it also prompted us to think every economist,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Chinese economy in the end how, the world economy in the end how is it? the first half of all policies are designed to prevent inflation, to the excessive growth rate down, in a few month period, 180-degree policy turn, all the policy instruments are used to ensure rapid economic growth. the danger of inflation between almost disappeared in a few weeks, and now we are faced with deflation, recession, falling prices , the rise in unemployment. The Government in a very short period of time introduced a four trillion fiscal stimulus package, marking China's accession to the world's countries in the world believe in Keynesian, Keynesian can not be applied in today's China? this later I will be mentioned.
us first look and see why our country's economy within a few months a dramatic change, are all because of the financial crisis? because of external why? The answer is not the case, you want to understand why, we still have to look back over the past few years China's rapid economic growth. we have to ask why the impact of the financial crisis, governments around the world can not see the direction of the world most developed economies, the most powerful U.S. economy is the financial tsunami do a find any. the U.S. financial system was facing collapse, dangerous climax of 10,11 months of this year, financial institutions closed down, making the whole collapse of Lehman Brothers freezing of the financial markets, people Xinhuang Huang, precarious. If not the U.S. government to take urgent measures, the United States is the largest investment bank Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley's second-largest investment bank to be closed down, the world economy may drained. The U.S. government charges do to great lengths to make the whole building from complete financial collapse.
how what's going on? to say this is a long story, I say point of view, just one of many One explanation may not be my understanding is correct, the only.

wind in 2001

talking about this from the beginning of 2001. In 2001 the world economic stage a major event took place, is the Internet bubble burst. Meanwhile, in 2001, China joined the WTO, This is a landmark event, before that, with China as the representative of the emerging market countries have their own economy and the global economy closely linked. and China joined the WTO, marked the world's two largest economies, a a developed market economy countries the United States, one is developing in China, have been inseparable, the historic all right. but this correlation to improve the economy, world governments, including the United States, the Chinese government's academics, business are lack of knowledge, people with past habits of thinking, using past experience to deal with these two economies have together today. The result is a mistake, planted the seeds of the financial crisis. (http:// [link widoczny dla zalogowanych])
in China's accession to WTO, the United States gains access to what? First, the The products can be imported from China, while Chinese products are cheap. Second, the Americans suddenly discovered that there is such a huge world of Chinese plants in the United States of negotiations between employers and employees,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the employer's position was strengthened. U.S. currency expansion and not the same as China, China's inflation is caused by supply shortages, such as sick pigs in Sichuan, pork price shot up. And the biggest reason for U.S. inflation from rising wage costs, it is a market comparison developed countries, supply-side bottlenecks almost is not, it is the big push inflation, wages, wages increased by more than the rise in labor productivity, workers pay more than the wealth of workers with labor occurs when a currency expansion. The China factor in the inhibition of this part of the U.S. inflation, U.S. employers to employee said, you want more money I will not give you add,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I can do for me the Chinese people, under their orders to China, you want to go on strike I would not have done in the country, so the monetary policy.

story

U.S. ; If there is no inflation, the authorities can maintain a loose monetary policy, inflation is up only when the world's central banks will tighten the money supply, interest rates, tightening the method used to reduce aggregate demand, the currency inflation pressure down. As China's presence in the United States in a long time to maintain high economic growth, and there is no inflation, Greenspan this time a bit confuse, why the U.S. economy is not inflation? he wanted to raise interest rates, but can not see inflation, the enemy does not appear you fire a gun what does this mean? high rate of economic growth there is anything wrong with it. in being hesitant, Greenspan put cut? as 911 attacks made the U.S. financial system into chaos, between the financial system liquidity problems, the U.S. business confidence will be seriously affected, in order to stimulate investment and stimulate consumption to prevent the U.S. economy into recession,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Alan Greenspan after the 911 dramatic cuts. However, Greenspan in a very long time do not see any signs of inflation, so he'll wait! so! so! wait until mid-2004, inflation began to rise in the United States, Greenspan was began raising interest rates, tightening money supply, but it was too late. 2001 to 2004, the interest rate is the lowest level after the war, about 1%, of course, today the U.S. interest rate than the br> after the war to maintain low interest rates more than two years, causing the problem? low interest rates to excess liquidity. non-professional students may not understand the economy of liquidity, liquidity is money , too much money. 1% interest rate, people will put the money in the bank be?, so the money wandering around in the market; 1% interest rate, the bank also released a large number of loans, people also like to borrow money, because interest rates are low, capital is cheap; people do not save money, companies do not save money, and American families, businesses, financial institutions have a lot of borrowed money and borrowed the result is that we in terms of economics, the credit spread, liquidity of flooding, we are borrowing money to live. Chinese people are tightening their belts to get along, we are the world's most frugal people, and our savings rate close to 50%, the highest in the world. U.S. savings rate? is 0, there are few savings rate is negative, borrowing money to survive. Why? too cheap to borrow money, interest rates too low, too much of a money economy is not a good thing, we should go wrong. Beijing under the rain, snow, we all feel so good rains in arid areas, very humid, but more than a second ring under the water under the bridge to the car to open is not passed, so the water can not be too much; a city water is not too much, a economy, money can not be too much, too much money to the accident. If too much money, more than the physical needs of the economy, the extra money anywhere to? went to search for assets, as asset markets also fit the time to change into the asset bubble. too much money, how to do? into such stock, A stock Why rushed from 1,000 points 6,000 points, the U.S. stock market also, all the way to bullish. enter the property market, property market to create a large bubble swelling , how the property market bubble is created? is because too much money. commercial banks to get loans to people all got up, leaving those who are not qualified to get loans, but commercial banks and politicians in the United States to these not qualified to create the conditions for the people, let him borrow a loan, this loan is called real estate market, the real estate market bubble blowing one day at a large, blown bubble burst last year. the sub-prime after a big bubble blowing, coupled with financial innovation, MBS, made the sub-prime mortgage securitization, and then sold to investors, so the risk to spread to the market on the.
the root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the money too, why more money? because interest rates are low. Why interest rates are low and no inflation? We generally agree that Greenspan is the culprit of the financial crisis, Greenspan's two big mistakes: first, monetary policy mistakes; the second is financial regulation error. I am the other day, Greenspan admitted the first two errors, I think it is evasive, and now does not recognize the monetary policy mistakes. Therefore, the administration took office, he asked to be put Paul Volcker Committee's director of economic recovery, Greenspan's predecessor, Paul is Greenspan should feel very lost, but his loss has nothing to complain about. This is the story of the American side. (http://www.tecn.cn)

Chinese stories

we will look at this side of global economic integration, China is how matter. the United States more money, in addition to manufacturing the stock market bubble, the real estate bubble, but also to get the money to buy things on the international market, so the result of strong demand for Chinese exports. Although we are how, but the outside needs a lot of money will be able to sell out. Since the strong demand, domestic enterprises to invest and increase production and supply capacity, since the beginning of this century the growth of our economy driven mainly by investment, investment-driven forces on the one hand domestic demand, the other is from overseas. After China's accession to WTO, there has been strong demand from abroad, we desperately investment, capacity of supply, the formation of too many products exported to the United States, That both sides put together to form a complete international economic cycle.
this cycle now go elsewhere, why? suddenly we find that the demand from the United States did not. I to understand the situation in Guangdong, there are some export-oriented enterprises, and I said, in November for a whole month without an order, some enterprises have not only no new orders, even the old orders are canceled, never seen such a situation. Why all of a sudden Like the tide, these orders disappeared out? originally from the U.S., Europe and Japan External demand is supported by what? is supported by a loose monetary policy, and now the subprime crisis, bubble burst, the U.S. financial agencies across the river clay Buddha trouble, as in the past no longer possible loans, once the lending stops, the U.S. economy ground to a halt immediately. Why, after the sub-prime the economy having failed to make the Big Three? the American people to buy a car with us not the same car, let alone a car, we buy a house are all in cash. America is not the case, Americans buy a car with a loan. Once the commercial banks can not loan out, the purchasing power of American families on the sudden drop in car sales immediately changed into the negative, the three automakers is debt management, cash flow can not flow if the whole company can not operate. Of course, in the long run is the core issue of three trade union depot problem, but led to three major banks to stop lending business depot crisis, the American people can not buy a car as in the past.
With three depots debt, the country is the United States was hurt the country, the United States Government not to mention, is heavily in debt, the American problem is excessive debt. Chinese people is the problem? saving too much. Why do we always buy U.S. treasury bonds, the Americans who borrow to lend him? is kept who lent him money, save money Who? Chinese, so the Chinese buy U.S. treasury bonds is a very logical thing, take out the money can earn interest, so we do not blame the central bank and SAFE, the The inevitable process of the economic cycle in China to buy U.S. treasury bonds.
Now, the U.S. financial system, debt management to look to upset the business model. In the past we have here no matter how much production , someone to be, now that nobody wanted, and we formed a large number of excess investment in capacity, would now become a stock. excess inventory, excess capacity seems to emerge from the ground overnight, and why we see steel prices plummeted over the past few months, coal prices fall, iron ore prices fall, and why? because of excess capacity, regardless of the cost of selling stock companies, international economic cycles of the chain, as long as the middle of a chain of broken, all other chain to have a
Chinese side need to adjust what? the domestic economy so much excess capacity, inventory to handle, how to deal with excess capacity? I listen to people who steel plant told me, they are now considering how to do steel-making furnaces, steel making is not a market there is a demand for more than two refining furnaces, there is no demand stopped for two days, the furnace can stop it? can not stop. But there is no market demand steel plant has two options: the first is called have to supply, burning coke oven if the high cost of boring, and some consider the molten steel drain, blow up the furnace.
the past we learn in When, say, a capitalist mode of production is characterized by a large number of surplus. I remember a photo in textbooks, American farmers and the milk was poured into the ditch, and today we are down a ditch, but not the same reason, not only put milk in the ditch, but also the good stove to explode. Americans are very painful in the adjustment, we have to adjust the excess inventory processed later, we are faced with excess capacity. milk can be drained, cows can be killed, how do these machines, plant how to do, how to do mine? global economic adjustment is a very painful process,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], not only the pain is likely to be a long process. We found that strong overseas demand is actually by the monetary policy, and monetary policy that removed a virtual fire,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], we have a lot of investment in the future may not create value. The benefits of these investments if they can not, on the banks mean? means that a large number of bad loans of banks. it What does it mean for society? unemployment generated. So now the government is very anxious, but also have to pay attention to ways and means to worry, not to collect worry, a worry not allowed to command industry layoffs, no layoffs of business does not go how to do?