French Coface says world growth to slow down in 20

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French Coface says world growth to slow down in 2011
French leading credit insurer Coface estimated on Monday that the world economy would slow growth to 3.4 percent in 2011 from 4 percent in 2010 with emerging economies still leading the growth while joint pressure of private debt,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], austerity fiscal policy and raw materials prices weighs on development.The subsidiary of the Natixis Bank made the statement at its 15th Country Risk Conference.
The advanced countries would show growth of 1.8 percent compared to 2.3 percent in 2010,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], with the euro zone to decelerate by 1.4 percent, lower from 1.7 percent in 2010, while the emerging countries will "continue the solid growth trajectory in 2011" with 6.2 percent increase, compared to 6.7 percent in 2010, the statement said.
Risk for the euro zone,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], grouping a number of advanced countries,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], is mainly on private debt bubble which resulted in sovereign crises, but the emerging countries,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], according to Coface,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], are also facing a surge in indebtedness in the private sector, which could risk growth financing though not serious enough now given the weight of private sectors.
"The convergence between the risks in advanced countries and emerging countries is getting stronger," said Coface, the third largest global credit insurer,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], stressing "it's time of converging risk" between the advanced and the emerging.
"The euro zone has demonstrated that it is possible to be in a crisis with very high external debt but in 'local currency',[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," breaking the stereotype of risk only linked to the foreign currency component of the debt in emerging countries, explains Francois David, Chairman of Coface.
As for evaluating country risks, Coface said it observed improvement in terms of country ratings for the year 2010. In 2010,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it set the lowest rating in the advanced countries at A4,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], now 27 emerging countries including Turkey,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Brazil, India and Poland have ratings greater than or equal to A4, better than Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Coface ranks as one world leader of credit insurance for export with 25 percent market share. Besides offering credit insurance,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], factoring and receivables management to global clients,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], it is also rating 156 countries,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], of which 28 are advanced countries.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast Monday for global oil-demand growth this year,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], encouraged by outlook of continued world economic recovery.In 2011,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], world oil demand growth is forecast at 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 50,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych],000 bpd higher than last month's estimate, the Vienna-based oil cartel announced in its January report .
The report noted that the continued pace of the global economic recovery will have a considerable impact on world oil demand in 2011." World economic activities were stronger than expected, resulting in more oil usage,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]," the report said.
OPEC predicted world economy would continue to enjoy positive momentum backed by the ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector.The monthly report also revised world economic growth for 2010 up to 4.5 percent from 4.3 percent. Growth in 2011 was revised higher to 3.9 percent from 3.8 percent.
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