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Empirical Study of Chinese goods market volatility

Economic system entirely from the interference of outside factors. Fluctuations in commodity markets with characteristics of vertical and horizontal irregular waves tend to feature strong, and similarly, the total volatility also has two external features. (1) longitudinal study irregular features of the previous show in China since 1953,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], lO times the total economy is a complete wave, the wavelength of each irregular fluctuations in the average wavelength of 4.2 years. LO times the total in this volatile, there are four kinds of wavelength type (see Table 7). Among them,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the wavelength of 3 years, 4 times a wavelength of 2 years, 7 years and 2 times respectively, the wavelength is 4 years, 8 years were 1. It can be seen, the frequency is maximum duration (wavelength) for the 3-year volatility, volatility persistence, asked for 4 years is not a maximum value, there i only Rotary Table 71953--1994 economic fluctuations in China frequency distribution wavelength (years) l2345678 Total (in cross-frequency (change l ** I22 * l8300148a22345678 wavelength Jt953 ~ 1994 years of China's weakness by moving the frequency of pay Danbu Note: According to the most 2 total nasal c _ Figure 2 China's aggregate economic fluctuation shows the wavelength of the frequency distribution. Wo be close to Poisson distribution curve represents the average duration (about 42 years) of the wavelength, the amount of rate is not to take a maximum value. but the average duration from the more recent, frequency value and not necessarily, the more far away. frequency values are not necessarily smaller. This shows that the total amount of China's economic fluctuations in the frequency distribution of various wavelengths was sweet in vain ', when no rules. Contact Chinese goods crossing the moving market transition length frequency distribution, easy to find the best products to market fluctuation and volatility of the wavelength of the total frequency of breaks are not close to the Poisson distribution curve, both in terms of fluctuations in the irregularity is similar to. (2) the total horizontal forced not only the wavelength of the frequency fluctuations appeared to be quite random distribution of La, and the fluctuations of the big stars are force a trend. indole pupil revenue growth at the peak to the trough of the drop from the measured dynamic range of transition. The minimum gap is 5.9%,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the biggest drop of 51.7%, 15.3% average precision Chi (see Table Cool

. As for the sector in 1978 to examine the period before and after the reform, the pre-reform period of passive Q went through a very intense fluctuations in the average drop is about 7 I8.9 %, higher than the average gap between full-time (153) 36 Power, - i 3 fluctuations which are more than 20% drop is really described as , a move China's Lian-An Empirical Study on commodity markets through the 3 l7 fluctuations in the average gap was 7%, lower than before the reform period, the average gap fluctuations l1.9 percent, also lower than the average gap between full-time fluctuations. This once again that since the reform and opening up a new national policy of the stability of aggregate economic growth is indeed improved, without significant fluctuations. Table 81953--1995 fluctuations in China's economic aggregate volatility (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6), asked trough peak trough fluctuation in the peak time of pulse sequences Year% Year%% The average drop fall bee Valley I1953195414.05.88.2 �� 1956195714.14.59.6 �� 1958196122.0-29.751.7 �� l966196717.0 -7.224.2l8.9Vl970197223.32.920.4l5.3 �� 197319748.31.17.2 �� 197519768.3-2.7l1.01llI1978198112.34.97.4 '�� 1985198613.67.75.9-7.0Xl988l989l1.33 .77.6 Note: According to co-operate 2 calculation. to contact the Chinese commodity market volatility forced,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and very easy to find the total commodity market fluctuations and volatility are the common features of horizontal large fluctuations, showing a strong tendency to wave. However, the two there is a clear difference is that fluctuations of the order of Yin difference. reforms, significantly decreased the total volatility, and commodity market volatility than before the reform but rather increased. reform before the total amount of commodity market volatility than volatility , volatility of commodity markets since the reform was significantly greater than the total amount of volatility. This difference in the appearance of conversion, mainly due to 8o since the mid-field due to the chaotic flow.

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