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Low Cost, High Returns
The recent offer of 5, 010 flats by the DDA (Delhi DevelopmentAuthority) had attracted over 7. 5 lakh buyers, of which 5. 67 lakhapplied with deposits (1 flat per 100 subscribers). Affordable cost andeasy credit led people to apply in hordes. This is just one of the manyschemes that are launched around the year by the local developmentauthorities in urban cities.
But these are too few to meet thedemand of housing in India. Though a small portion of this demand hasbeen addressed by private builders and housing finance institutions, this was restricted mostly to meeting the demand of the MIG (middleincome group) and HIG (high income group) sectors. What has remainedunattended is the demand for low cost housing, the so-called EWS(economically weaker sections) and LIG (low income group) sectors. Paradoxically,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the current financial crisis has come as a boon for theIndian economy especially for the requirements of the common man in thereal estate sector. This is because it has finally brought back thefocus on the market that was in need of housing�� "the low cost" or"affordable" segment.
During the past decade, there was aphenomenal spurt in the private real estate development space. Easycredit availability and general performance in the economy saw themedium income households realising their dream of owning a house. Butsoon,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], high optimism, poor regulation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and poorly implemented landpolicy brought in speculation, and private developers started lookingfor higher premiums.
The ordinarily conservative approachtowards servicing the housing requirement was replaced by a morechallenging one, with individuals committing to higher price bands thanthey could afford. A combination of credit facilities (such as housingloan with personal loan) was used to meet the costs. This furtherboosted the price and within a span of 3 years the prices hadskyrocketed��leading to an asset price bubble in real estate. Then camethe financial crisis. With the crisis spreading, its impact through theIndian economy, even though interest rates reduced, credit availabilitybecame tough, spending reduced and most real estate developers startedhaving difficulty finding buyers for premium apartments. This hasforced developers to go back to examining the low cost housing space. Hence, the argument that the current crisis is a boon which ensuredthat India did not get into a trap that could lead...
: it to having its own form of a ��subprime��.
Housing demand in urban India
Withthe focus now on meeting the need of the common man, we need toidentify who he is and what is his requirement. As per estimates madeby Indicus Analytics in its Market Skyline of India 2008-09, there arecurrently 68. 2 million households living in urban India.
Theestimates of income distribution reveal that almost 15% of the urbanhouseholds have an annual income of less than Rs 75, 000. For an averagefamily of 4 members, this would be a monthly income of just over Rs6, 000. This group accounts for a large amount of the slum formation inthe city. People from these households are involved in servicing theneeds of the higher income groups and cannot afford to travel longdistances (poor urban transport systems have not helped either! ). Thusthey settle in and around the localities, giving rise to slums andsquatter settlements.
The income estimates from the studyfurther show that 25% of the urban households have annual incomebetween Rs 75, 000-1, 50, 000 and another 36% have annual income betweenRs 1, 50, 000-3,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], 00, 000. The remaining 25% have incomes above Rs 3, 00, 000.
Households having an income of less than Rs 1, 50, 000 cannotafford housing in the range of Rs 5-7 lakh. Households having an incomeof less than Rs 3 lakh can afford houses under the Rs 10 lakh priceband. And households having an annual income between Rs 3-5 lakh can atbest afford houses under Rs 20 lakh. Now, 90% of the urban householdshave incomes under 5 lakh. Thus the demand for majority of the urbanhousing would be in this category. There are clear indications thatthis demand is not being met through the formal housing stock. One ofthe leading indicators is the rising slum and squatter settlementpopulation.
A look at the type of housing demand further gives an idea of how large is the unmet need of low cost housing in urban India.
Theestimates from the Housing Skyline of India for the top 112 cities showthat almost 65% of the excess demand in the next 5 years is for houseswith sub 1, 000 square feet area. This would translate to approximately6. 8 million houses. The same study further estimates that approximately70% of the demand...
: would be for houses with 2 rooms or less (or 7. 4 million new houses).
Theseare fairly large numbers and meeting this demand will not be easy. Ifwe go by the past performance of the various players in the real estatesector, both public and private, this target is much beyond theirreach. Thus a much more aggressive and forward-looking approach isrequired. Ensuring there is regular availability of land for low costhousing within the city is amongst the first and foremost steps. A slewof red tape has long ensured that the real estate sector does not getout of the speculative trap and false pricing mechanism.
Mostof the large towns and cities have government bodies with almostmonopolistic control over land, and this is a serious problem. Poormanagement by them ensures that this land is not made available fordevelopment, leading to a price rise. Yet, it is clear that, bythemselves, these local bodies cannot meet the demand for low costhousing. So, a form of public-private partnership is required to ensurethat development of low cost housing continues unhindered. This shouldbe accompanied by a combination of easy and low cost credit facilitiesfor the lower income families, especially for those who are still not apart of the formal channels. A set of initiatives has recently beenannounced that addresses some of these aspects. However, thebuilder-politician also goes a long way in making reform a challenge. One can hope that things would move positively, though going by ourdismal past record, one has serious doubtsPeeyush Bajpai, MBA, BE VNIT, Jamshedpur. Heads product development at Indicus, An Economics Research Firm. He has worked on education, health and the social sector and has conducted many studies at the sub-state; state and country level. He spearheaded "The Market Skyline of India-2002", the first ever product rolled out from Indicus stables. Has strong analytical and technological skills to back the theoretical and practical insightsTopics related articles：

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