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21st Century Belongs To Commodity Trading
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Did you ever read the story of the great Turtle Trading Experiment when two great commodities traders of their time decide to take a few novices and teach them how to trade commodities futures. Ultimately many of those turtle who had never traded commodities before ended up making millions. Commodities are entering a historical bull market that might continue for many decades in the first part of the 21st century. Commodity investing is giving investors higher returns as compared to other assets. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index that tracks a basket of commodities has doubled in the last decade and might double again in this decade. So think about learning commodity trading. If the turtles can do it, you too can do it,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]!
Commodities like gold, silver,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], oil, copper, uranium,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], wheat, cotton and other are experiencing an all time high historical prices. Gold prices recently breached the unheard of historical barrier of $1200 per troy ounce. Gold prices have retraced somewhat, but the market is poised for another rally in gold prices in the next few months. Other commodities are also experiencing a all time high demand. Crude oil is expected to reach close to $200 per barrel in the next few years with the global economy finally out of recession. What we are watching is a secular bull market in the commodities. This secular bull market may continue for many decades in 21st century. That is why it is being said that 21st century belongs to commodity trading. The fundamentals behind this secular bull market are strong.
But this does not mean that the commodity bull market will go up in a straight line. There will be times when the commodities market will no perform very well. This is simply the nature of the commodity cycle. No market ever goes up in a straight line.
What are the fundamentals that are driving the bull market in commodities? These are the factors like the rapid global population growth that started in the last half of 20th century and is expected to continue in 21st century. This rapid population growth is taking place mostly in the developing continents like Asia and Africa. Recent studies done by UNDP, an agency of United Nations indicate that the time for the global population to increase by 1 billion people has decreased from 50 years in the early 20th century to something like 13 years in 21 st century.
Now this rapid increase in the global population is going to put a lot of pressure on natural resources. It is natural for people to eat and built homes where they can live and sleep. These homes need heating in winters. All these things need natural resources.
People are moving towards cities. This is happening at a rapid pace in the developing countries. In the beginning of 20th century, only 15% of the global population used to live in cities. Now this figure has increased to around 50%. Cities in countries like China, India and Brazil are facing a lot of pressure from the rural migrationt that is taking place. Now this rapid urbanization puts a lot of pressure on natural resources as cities tend to consume a lot of natural resources.
Add industrialization to population growth and rapid urbanization. Countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China also known as BRIC countries are rapidly industrializing. This means their economies need a lot of natural resources for their rapid industrialization. This high demand for natural resources is what is driving the boom in the commodity market.
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